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2009年02 期
| 标题 |
| 考虑随机波动影响的区域货物周转量预测(31 卷) |
| 英文标题 |
| Forecast Regional Freight Ton-kilometers Considering Influence of Stochastic Fluctuation |
| 摘要 |
| 基于区域货物周转量由发展趋势值与随机波动值两部分组成。首先建立灰色GM（1，1）模型预测区域货物周转量发展趋势值;再以样本数据与预测发展趋势值两者之差计算随机波动值，并以随机波动值与发展趋势值的比率作为划分随机波动状态的指标;利用马尔可夫链确定随机波动值状态转 |
| 作者 |
| 新闻作者:刘颖恒，方晓平，辛黎光，张晋莉 |
| 关键字 |
